Context
- Reports suggest India may allow the Taliban to appoint an envoy for its embassy in New Delhi.
India’s Growing Engagement with the Taliban
- High-Level Talks: In January, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Taliban ‘Foreign Minister’ Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai to discuss political and economic ties.
- Reopening of Embassy: India reopened its embassy in Kabul in June 2022, signaling a gradual shift towards engaging with the Taliban.
Implications of Recognizing the Taliban
- De Facto Recognition: Accepting a Taliban diplomat would legitimize the regime, something most countries avoid due to human rights abuses.
- Women’s Rights Violations: The Taliban has banned education for 1.4 million girls, barred women from jobs, beauty parlors, and national parks, leading to UN experts calling it “gender apartheid.”
- India’s Strategic Interests: India sees an opportunity for influence in Afghanistan, given its strategic importance.
China’s Quick Action & Pakistan’s Diminishing Influence
- China’s Engagement: China was the first country to accept a Taliban envoy and is funding infrastructure projects, considering Afghanistan’s inclusion in the Belt and Road Initiative.
- Pakistan-Taliban Fallout: Pakistan, once a key Taliban ally, has lost influence due to Taliban’s growing independence and regional engagements with China, Russia, and Central Asia.
Terrorism Risks in Afghanistan
- Rise of Islamic State (IS): IS has carried out deadly attacks in Afghanistan, targeting the Taliban and its allies.
- Terrorist Attacks on China & Russia:
- IS attacked a Kabul hotel with Chinese nationals in 2022.
- Threatened to bomb the Chinese embassy in 2023.
- Killed 140 in a Moscow attack in 2024.
- Pakistan’s Terrorism Concerns: Taliban allegedly supports Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which carried out 147 attacks in Pakistan in February 2024, killing 180 soldiers.
- Pakistan’s Response: Airstrikes on terror camps in Afghanistan and border clashes with the Taliban have worsened relations.
Threats to India & Need for Caution
- India in IS Crosshairs:
- December 2023: IS claimed an attack on the Indian consulate in Jalalabad, killing one person.
- UN Report: IS seeks “lone actors” to carry out attacks in India.
- India’s Security Concerns: New Delhi should insist on Afghanistan’s cooperation in counterterrorism before deepening ties.
- Lessons from China & Pakistan: Both suffered losses engaging with the Taliban, proving Afghanistan remains a high-risk investment.
- Final Verdict: Given India’s history of terrorism, engaging with the Taliban may be a dangerous gamble that New Delhi might reconsider.