Israel–Iran Conflict: From Shadow War to Open Confrontation

Introduction

The long-simmering tensions between Israel and Iran escalated dramatically in June 2025 when Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a large-scale military strike on Iran’s nuclear and missile sites. In retaliation, Iran responded with Operation True Promise 3, firing hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli cities including Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

This confrontation—triggered soon after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported Iran’s violation of the 1974 Nuclear Safeguards Agreement—marks a dangerous shift from decades of proxy and covert conflict to direct warfare, with global ramifications.

I. Roots of the Conflict: A Historical Perspective

Pre-1979: Under the Shah, Iran and Israel maintained cordial ties, united against Arab nationalism.
1979 Islamic Revolution: Iran, under Ayatollah Khomeini, cut diplomatic ties with Israel and adopted an uncompromising anti-Israel stance.
1980s – Proxy Strategy: Iran began backing groups such as Hezbollah (Lebanon) and later Hamas (Gaza), which carried out attacks on Israel with Iranian support.
2000s – Nuclear Ambitions: Iran’s growing nuclear program alarmed Israel, which perceived it as an existential threat.
2007: Israel destroyed Syria’s suspected nuclear reactor, signaling its willingness to pre-empt nuclear threats.
2010–2020 – Shadow War: Cyber operations (e.g., Stuxnet), targeted assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, and sabotage defined this period, alongside Iran’s proxy warfare.
2020 Abraham Accords: Israel normalized ties with Gulf states like the UAE and Bahrain, deepening Iran’s sense of encirclement.
2021–2023: Drone warfare, maritime attacks, and Iran’s accelerating enrichment program intensified tensions.
2024–2025: The IAEA’s declaration of Iranian non-compliance set the stage for Israel’s offensive.

II. Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Pre-emptive Strike

Intelligence groundwork: Mossad reportedly established covert drone bases inside Iran, smuggled in UAVs, precision munitions, and even commandos before the strikes.
Scale of strikes: Around 200 Israeli aircraft targeted 250+ sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, as well as missile batteries, command centers, and energy infrastructure.
Leadership losses: Senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists were killed, disrupting Iran’s strategic and military command structure.
Civilian toll: Despite precision targeting claims, energy plants, hospitals, and residential zones were hit, causing hundreds of civilian deaths—raising debates under international humanitarian law.

III. Iran’s Response: Operation True Promise 3

Ballistic and drone strikes: Iran launched 150+ missiles and over 100 drones on Israeli cities.
Impact: Israel’s Iron Dome intercepted many, but some hit urban areas, causing property damage and 22 reported civilian injuries.
Proxy mobilisation: Hezbollah, Houthis, and militias in Iraq and Syria threatened coordinated attacks, risking regional spillover.

IV. Broader Implications of the War

1. Global Ramifications

Energy Market Shock: Nearly 20% of global oil trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption could spike oil prices, trigger global inflation, and slow economic recovery.
U.S. Dilemma: Washington, Israel’s closest ally, faces pressure to support Israel while avoiding entanglement in a wider Middle East war.
Nuclear Proliferation Risks: If Iran withdraws from the NPT, other regional powers (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt) may pursue nuclear options, eroding global non-proliferation regimes.
Great Power Rivalries: The conflict polarizes global powers—U.S. backing Israel, Russia and China tilting toward Iran—further fragmenting international diplomacy.

2. Regional Challenges in West Asia

Multi-front Escalation: Hostilities risk spreading to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, where Iran-backed groups operate.
Rise of Hybrid Warfare: Drones, cyberattacks, and asymmetric warfare complicate escalation control.
Diplomatic Setbacks: Revival of the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), Israel-Arab reconciliation efforts, and the two-state solution risk derailment.
Militant Resurgence: Groups like Hezbollah and Houthis could expand attacks on U.S. and Israeli assets across the region.

India–Israel Relations

Diplomatic Ties: Established formally in 1992, evolving into a strategic partnership.
Defence Cooperation: Israel is one of India’s top arms suppliers—providing UAVs, Barak missiles, radars, and missile-defense systems.
Agriculture & Water Tech: Israel assists India in drip irrigation, desalination, and water recycling.
Intelligence & Counterterrorism: Mossad collaborates with Indian agencies.
Trade: Non-defense bilateral trade stands at $7–8 billion annually.

India–Iran Relations

Civilizational Links: Cultural, linguistic, and trade ties date back centuries.
Energy Partner: Iran was once India’s second-largest crude supplier until U.S. sanctions disrupted imports.
Connectivity Projects:
- Chabahar Port: A critical gateway for India to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
- INSTC (International North-South Transport Corridor): Enhances India’s access to Russia and Europe via Iran.
Geopolitical Weight: Iran plays a role in India’s “Connect Central Asia” and “Act West” policies.

Key Implications for India

Strategic Tightrope: India must carefully balance defense ties with Israel and energy-connectivity stakes in Iran.
Diaspora Safety: With 8+ million Indians in West Asia, New Delhi may face large-scale evacuation challenges.
Impact on Projects: Chabahar Port and INSTC may suffer delays, weakening India’s regional outreach.
Geopolitical Pressure: The U.S. expects support for Israel, while Russia-China backs Iran—testing India’s strategic autonomy.
Defence Preparedness: Overdependence on Israeli defense imports could create vulnerabilities if conflict drags on.
Safety of Diaspora: With 8+ million Indians in West Asia, India faces potential humanitarian and evacuation challenges.
Energy Security: India imports over 60% of crude oil from the Gulf. Disruptions in Hormuz could raise fuel prices, widen the trade deficit, and affect inflation.
Diplomatic Tightrope: India has close ties with Israel (defense, technology) and Iran (Chabahar Port, INSTC, energy)—requiring delicate balancing.
Strategic Projects at Risk: INSTC and Chabahar could face delays, undermining India’s connectivity goals.
UN Pressure: India may face calls to mediate or take a stance, testing its foreign policy autonomy.

VI. Legal and Strategic Dimensions

International Law Debate: While Israel cites self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter, critics argue the strikes violate the principles of necessity and proportionality.
Nuclear Doctrine Questions: Israel’s action underscores the fragility of the global non-proliferation framework and the limits of diplomacy in restraining nuclear ambitions.
Geostrategic Realignment: The war could redefine Middle East alignments, potentially pushing Gulf states closer to Israel while cementing Iran’s axis with Russia and China.

Conclusion

The Israel–Iran conflict of 2025 is a watershed moment, transforming a decades-long shadow war into open confrontation. It highlights the dangers of unchecked nuclear ambitions, proxy warfare, and regional rivalries in West Asia. For the world, the crisis raises pressing questions of energy security, nuclear proliferation, and great-power rivalries. For India, it presents a delicate challenge of balancing strategic partnerships while safeguarding its diaspora and energy interests.

For UPSC students, this conflict is not just a current affairs topic—it is a prism to analyze international law, nuclear strategy, West Asian geopolitics, and India’s foreign policy calculus.

Israel–Iran Conflict 2025: From Shadow War to Open Confrontation and Global Fallout