Future of India–Bangladesh Relationship Report

The Standing Committee on External Affairs presented the report titled “Future of India–Bangladesh Relationship” in the Lok Sabha.

• The report begins by highlighting strategic realignment, which refers to a possible shift in foreign policy orientation by Bangladesh.
• The collapse of the government in Bangladesh in August 2024 has created significant political uncertainty in the country.
• This political uncertainty has raised concerns about a potential strategic shift of Dhaka away from India.

Security Challenges

• The report identifies security threats as a major challenge for India–Bangladesh relations.
• Illegal migration across the border remains a key security concern for India.
• Cross-border terrorism, meaning terrorist activities originating in one country that affect another, is another major security issue.
• These threats are intensified due to 864 km of unfenced India–Bangladesh border.
• The border runs through riverine terrain, which refers to areas dominated by rivers and shifting channels.
• It also passes through mountainous terrain, making surveillance and fencing difficult.

Economic Barriers and Trade Imbalances

• The report highlights economic barriers and trade imbalances as another major concern.
• Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh stood at USD 13.46 billion in 2024–25.
  • This trade remains heavily skewed in favor of India, meaning India exports far more than it imports.
• Infrastructure constraints at land ports limit efficient trade movement.
  • High congestion at land ports further slows cross-border trade.
• The report flags the influx of third-country goods, which are products originating from countries other than Bangladesh.
• Chinese fabrics are cited as a key example of such third-country goods.
• These goods enter India using preferential trade provisions, which are benefits meant only for Bangladesh.

Water Sharing and Environmental Issues

• The report identifies water sharing and environmental crises as critical unresolved issues.
• The Ganga Water Treaty, signed in 1996, governs the sharing of Ganga river waters between India and Bangladesh.
• The treaty will expire in December 2026.
  • No formal renewal discussions for the treaty have started so far.
• India and Bangladesh share 53 transboundary rivers, meaning rivers that flow across national boundaries.
• Agreements on these 53 rivers, including the Teesta River, remain unresolved.
• The Sundarbans delta, a shared mangrove ecosystem, faces serious environmental threats.
• Climate-driven sea-level rise, caused by global warming, threatens the long-term survival of the Sundarbans.

Strategic Concerns

• The report highlights China’s expanding presence in Bangladesh as a strategic concern for India.
• China is involved in the upgrade of Mongla Port, enhancing Bangladesh’s maritime infrastructure.
• China has also developed a submarine base at Pekua in Bangladesh.
• These developments pose a potential threat to India’s Siliguri Corridor, also known as the “Chicken’s Neck”, which is a narrow land strip connecting mainland India with the Northeast.
• The report raises concerns over attacks on religious minorities in Bangladesh.

Strategic Recommendations

Diplomatic Engagement

• The report recommends sustained diplomatic engagement to manage bilateral relations.
• This includes Track II diplomacy, which involves unofficial dialogues among academics and experts.
• It also includes Track 1.5 diplomacy, which involves both officials and non-official experts.
• India should press for free, fair, and inclusive elections in Bangladesh.

Border Management

• The report emphasizes modernizing border management as a strategic priority.
• It recommends completing border fencing along the India–Bangladesh border.
• The use of advanced technologies is suggested for border surveillance.
• These technologies include drones, which provide aerial monitoring.
• Motion sensors are recommended to detect unauthorized movement.
• Laser intrusion detection systems are suggested to strengthen border security.

Economic Integration

• The report calls for economic safeguards and deeper integration.
• It recommends accelerating negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).
• CEPA is a broad trade agreement covering goods, services, and investments.
• The agreement should include strict rules-of-origin verification, which determine where a product is actually manufactured.
• These rules will help prevent misuse by third-country exporters.

Water and Climate Diplomacy

• The report emphasizes proactive water and climate diplomacy.
• It recommends initiating renewal talks for the Ganga Water Treaty at the earliest.
• These talks should be based on current hydrological data, meaning updated river flow measurements.
  • The talks should also consider climate change impacts on river systems.
• The report suggests joint climate adaptation measures for the Sundarbans, where climate adaptation refers to actions taken to reduce vulnerability to climate impacts.

Communication and Regional Cooperation

• The report recommends creating a Dedicated Strategic Communication and Perception Management Unit.
• This unit should be established within the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
• It advises leveraging regional forums for cooperation.
• BIMSTEC, which connects Bay of Bengal countries, is suggested as an alternative platform.
  • BIMSTEC is proposed as an effective alternative to SAARC, which remains stalled.
• The report stresses strengthening people-to-people connections between India and Bangladesh.
• Resuming normal visa operations is recommended to support these connections.